The Empire State Manufacturing (Mon., Aug. 16, 8:30 a.m.) and Philadelphia Fed (Thu., Aug. 19, 10:00 a.m.) Surveys are indicators of regional manufacturing activity that can foreshadow the national picture. These indices lately have suggested hesitation in production, employment and exporting, and in industry more generally.

Fed to Continue Asset Purchases. Will it Keep Recovery Alive?

Productivity & Costs (Tue., Aug. 10, 8:30 a.m.) will provide an initial look at Q2 unit labor costs and be suggestive about potentially higher profits and downside inflation risks. The Trade Balance (Wed., Aug. 11, 8:30 a.m.) and its track of exports and imports can indicate the strength of the global economy and its many “open” economies.

Disappointing Jobs Report Highlights Anemic Recovery

June pending existing home sales unexpectedly fall 2.6% (Consensus: +3.7%; Decision Economics: +3.0%), deepening the payback in sales (After a 29.9% drop in May) that has followed on the runup caused by the April 30 deadline for the homebuyers tax credit program.

June manufacturers orders fall a more-than-expected 1.2%, on a durable goods decline revised to 1.2% from 1.0% and a weaker-than-expected -1.3% result for non-durables.

June personal income and consumption disappoint expectations, with both coming in flat--though with the shortfall severe on the income side (Consensus: +0.2%; decision Economics: +0.3%) than for consumption (Consensus and Decision Economics: +0.1%).

New Home Sales (Mon., Jul. 26, 10:00 a.m.) will offer a view of the housing market post-tax credits. Underlying demand for homes still appears depressed.

“Double-Dip” or “Lost Decade”?

Housing Starts (Tue., Jul. 20, 8:30 a.m.) will provide a forward look at residential construction, now less than 3% of real GDP. Builders remain pessimistic.