Brazilian sovereign spreads seem likely to trend downwards, supported by an economy whose structure appears well-suited to take advantage of likely conditions over the next 12-to-18 months.

Unsurprisingly, the Turkish Central Bank cut its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points to 7.25%. This was the 11th consecutive cut since September 2008, accumulating a massive 950 basis points easing from a peak of 16.75%.

Brazil’s second quarter real GDP data confirm all previously available evidence pointing to an economic rebound, and suggest that the developing upturn may evolve into a V-shaped recovery over the next few quarters.

Singapore’s industrial production posted a gain of 12.4% year-on-year in July.

China’s July data show the recovery continuing, although generally speaking the up-tick picture seemed on the surface (in some cases—although not all—partly on account of statistical effects) slightly more subdued.

The outlook for emerging market currencies remains positive vis-à-vis the US dollar, to a significant extent because of dollar structural and cyclical weakness, but also on account of developments within the EM economies.

The latest batch of data from Korea adds a few brushstrokes to the developing picture of a probably V-shaped recovery. The bottom of the cycle appears to have occurred in the first quarter.

Korea’s advance real GDP statistics (based on April and May data) depict the economy as bottoming in the first quarter, attempting a comeback with considerable initial impetus, but still operating at levels well below those of 2008.

China’s Bureau of Statistics released second quarter real GDP data showing a significant improvement of the pace of expansion compared with the first quarter of 2009 and with the last quarter of 2008. The headline figure (7.9% year-on-year) was in line with market expectations and with Decision Economics’ own projection.

The private consumption share of India’s real GDP declined modestly in the last five years—from a range that appeared stable since the mid 1990s. The decline occurred as consumption growth did not keep up with the acceleration of the overall pace of expansion of the economy spurred by a surge of spending on fixed capital formation.